Commerce Bancshares Stock Forecast

Buy or Hold candidate since Jun 04, 2026 Gain 11.29%

The Commerce Bancshares stock price gained 0.172% on the last trading day (Friday, 10th Jul 2026), rising from $58.27 to $58.37. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 0.96% from a day low at $58.11 to a day high of $58.67. The price has risen in 7 of the last 10 days and is up by 1.62% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -239 thousand shares and in total, 715 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $41.76 million. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.

The stock lies in the upper part of a strong rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break-up at the top trend line at $59.24 will firstly indicate a stronger rate of rising. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 15.83% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $63.34 and $68.62 at the end of this 3-month period.

CBSH Signals & Forecast

The Commerce Bancshares stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $58.37 and $55.01. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The stock should be watched closely. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Tuesday, July 07, 2026, and so far it has fallen -0.799%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Commerce Bancshares stock

Commerce Bancshares finds support from accumulated volume at $57.79 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $0.560 between high and low, or 0.96%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 1.54%.

Our recommended stop-loss: $56.43 (-3.33%) (This stock has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 3 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (CBSH) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 13th

For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 13th we expect Commerce Bancshares to open at $58.38, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $57.87 and $58.87, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$1.01 (+/-1.74%) up or down from last closing price. If Commerce Bancshares takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 1.74% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $58.74 (0.63%) than the support at $57.79 (0.99%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.

Is Commerce Bancshares stock A Buy?

Several short-term signals, along with a general good trend, are positive and we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for Commerce Bancshares stock to perform well in the short-term.

Current score: 2.836 Buy Candidate Unchanged

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on July 13, 2026 - $58.38 ( 0.0228%).

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