Commerce Bancshares stock downgraded to Sell Candidate
(Updated on Nov 26, 2021)
Sell candidate since 2021-10-28 Gain 0.26% PDF
The Commerce Bancshares stock price fell by -4.73% on the last day (Friday, 26th Nov 2021) from $74.06 to $70.56. and has now fallen 3 days in a row. During the day the stock fluctuated 5.00% from a day low at $70.24 to a day high of $73.75. The price has fallen in 7 of the last 10 days and is down by -4.55% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day by 95 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 283 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $19.99 million.
The stock lies in the lower part of a weak rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good buying opportunity. If the lower trend floor at $70.39 is broken, it will firstly indicate a slower rate of rising, but may also be an early warning for a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 8.31% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $76.24 and $82.58 at the end of this 3-month period.
Signals & Forecast
There are few to no technical positive signals at the moment. The Commerce Bancshares stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term moving averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $73.06 and $72.31. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Wednesday, November 03, 2021, and so far it has fallen -5.62%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss
On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $66.87 and $66.60. There is natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Commerce Bancshares finds support just below today's level at $66.87. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $66.60 and $66.41.
In general the stock tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the stock moved $3.51 between high and low, or 5.00%. For the last week the stock has had a daily average volatility of 2.23%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold an negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Is Commerce Bancshares stock A Buy?
The Commerce Bancshares stock holds several negative signals and despite the positive trend, we believe Commerce Bancshares will perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. Therefore, we hold a negative evaluation of this stock. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Sell candidate.
Current score: -4.484
Predicted Opening Price for Commerce Bancshares of Monday, November 29, 2021
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and the closing price.
|Fair opening price November 29, 2021||Current price|
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On Oct 27, 2021 "Morgan Stanley" gave "$67.00 - $66.00" rating for CBSH. The price target was changed from $70.52 to 1.9%.
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