Is FalconStor Software stock still a buy after falling -5.95% on Monday ?
(Updated on Nov 29, 2021)
Buy or Hold candidate since 2021-11-19 Gain 16.39% PDF
The FalconStor Software stock price fell by -5.95% on the last day (Monday, 29th Nov 2021) from $3.70 to $3.48. During the day the stock fluctuated 7.76% from a day low at $3.48 to a day high of $3.75. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 54.67% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 297 shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 400 shares were bought and sold for approximately $1.39 thousand.
The stock lies the upper part of a very wide and falling trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break up at the top trend line at $3.68 will firstly indicate a slower falling rate, but may be the first sign of a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -20.65% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $1.60 and $2.92 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
Signals & Forecast
The FalconStor Software stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term moving averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $3.31 and $2.99. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Friday, November 26, 2021, and so far it has fallen -5.95%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. FalconStor Software gained volume on the last day, but on falling prices. In technical terms, this is called divergence and may be an early warning. In some cases, increasing volume on falling prices may be considered positive, but that is mainly in typical "sell-offs". The very low volume increases the risk and reduces the other technical signals issued.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss
On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $3.00 and $2.99. There is natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, FalconStor Software finds support just below today's level at $3.00. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $2.99 and $2.92.
This stock may move very much during the day (volatility) and with a very large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "very high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $0.27 between high and low, or 7.76%. For the last week, the stock has had a daily average volatility of 6.91%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $3.31 (-4.86%) (This stock has very high daily movements and this gives very high risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 1 days ago.)
Is FalconStor Software stock A Buy?
FalconStor Software holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Current score: 0.866
Predicted Opening Price for FalconStor Software of Tuesday, November 30, 2021
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and the closing price.
|Fair opening price November 30, 2021||Current price|
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