First Trust Emerging Markets AlphaDEX ETF Forecast

Buy or Hold candidate since Dec 03, 2024 Gain 1.76%

The First Trust Emerging Markets AlphaDEX ETF price fell by -0.91% on the last day (Thursday, 12th Dec 2024) from $23.29 to $23.08. It has now fallen 3 days in a row. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.91% from a day low at $23.06 to a day high of $23.27. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 2.85% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 18 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 48 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $1.11 million.

The ETF lies in the middle of a falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to fall -3.59% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $21.02 and $22.95 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the ETF price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.

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FEM Signals & Forecast

The First Trust Emerging Markets AlphaDEX ETF holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the ETF giving a positive forecast for the ETF. On further gains, the ETF will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately $23.15. On a fall, the ETF will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $22.72. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Monday, December 09, 2024, and so far it has fallen -3.23%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. First Trust Emerging Markets AlphaDEX gained volume on the last day, but on falling prices. In technical terms, this is called divergence and may be an early warning. In some cases, increasing volume on falling prices may be considered positive, but that is mainly in typical "sell-offs".

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for First Trust Emerging Markets AlphaDEX ETF

First Trust Emerging Markets AlphaDEX finds support from accumulated volume at $22.87 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

This ETF is usually traded at a good volume, and with minor daily changes, the risk is considered to be low. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.209 (0.91%) between high and low. For the last week, the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.84%.

Our recommended stop-loss: $22.19 (-3.88%) (This ETF has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 3 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (FEM) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Friday 13th

For the upcoming trading day on Friday, 13th we expect First Trust Emerging Markets AlphaDEX Fund to open at $23.14, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $22.76 and $23.40, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.322 (+/-1.40%) up or down from last closing price. If First Trust Emerging Markets AlphaDEX Fund takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 2.79% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $23.17 (0.39%) than the support at $22.87 (0.91%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.

Is First Trust Emerging Markets AlphaDEX Fund ETF A Buy?

First Trust Emerging Markets AlphaDEX holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.

Current score: -0.180 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded

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Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on December 13, 2024 - $23.14 ( 0.247%).