First Guaranty Bancshares Stock Forecast

Buy or Hold candidate since Oct 24, 2024 Gain 43.39%

The First Guaranty Bancshares stock price fell by -0.0678% on the last day (Wednesday, 4th Dec 2024) from $14.75 to $14.74. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 1.49% from a day low at $14.74 to a day high of $14.96. The price has risen in 7 of the last 10 days and is up by 20.33% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -9 thousand shares and in total, 12 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $182.82 thousand.

The stock lies in the upper part of a very wide and strong rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break-up at the top trend line at $14.80 will firstly indicate a stronger rate of rising. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 26.44% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $14.41 and $18.71 at the end of this 3-month period.

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FGBI Signals & Forecast

The First Guaranty Bancshares stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $14.07 and $11.68. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Tuesday, December 03, 2024, and so far it has fallen -0.0678%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume fell along with the price during the last trading day, which is technical positive. One should, however, note that this stock may have low liquidity in periods, which increases the general risk.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for First Guaranty Bancshares stock

On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $12.86 and $12.05. There is a natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, First Guaranty Bancshares finds support just below today's level at $12.86. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $12.05 and $11.09.

This stock may move much during the day (volatility) and with periodic low trading volume this stock is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $0.220 between high and low, or 1.49%. For the last week the stock has had daily average volatility of 3.61%.

The First Guaranty Bancshares stock is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this may pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some stock may go long and hard while being overbought. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely and it is of great importance that the stock manages to break the trend before that occurs.

Our recommended stop-loss: $14.28 (-3.11%) (This stock has high daily movements and this gives high risk. The RSI14 is 96 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 1 day ago.)

Trading Expectations (FGBI) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 5th

For the upcoming trading day on Thursday, 5th we expect First Guaranty Bancshares to open at $14.81, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $14.32 and $15.16, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.419 (+/-2.84%) up or down from last closing price. If First Guaranty Bancshares takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 5.69% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $14.75 (0.07%) than the support at $12.86 (12.75%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.

Is First Guaranty Bancshares stock A Buy?

Several short-term signals, along with a general good trend, are positive and we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for First Guaranty Bancshares stock to perform well in the short-term. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Buy candidate.

Current score: 1.429 Buy Candidate Upgraded

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Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on December 5, 2024 - $14.81 ( 0.498%).