Ocular Therapeutix Stock Forecast
High volatility in Ocular Therapeutix stock price on Wednesday which ended trading at $5.02
(Updated on May 01, 2024)
The Ocular Therapeutix stock price gained 5.91% on the last trading day (Wednesday, 1st May 2024), rising from $4.74 to $5.02. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 12.19% from a day low at $4.84 to a day high of $5.43. The price has fallen in 7 of the last 10 days and is down by -33.77% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 1 million more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 3 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $15.13 million.
The stock lies in the middle of a very wide and falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -11.14% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $3.29 and $8.97 at the end of this 3-month period.
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OCUL Signals & Forecast
There are mixed signals in the stock today. The Ocular Therapeutix stock holds a buy signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, the long-term average holds a general sell signal. Since the longterm average is above the short-term average there is a general sell signal in the stock giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the long-term Moving Average at $7.70. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the short-term average at $4.74. A break-up through the long-term average will give another buy signal, while a fall below the short-term average will add another sell signal and strengthen the general signal. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Tuesday, March 05, 2024, and so far it has fallen -54.07%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume is rising along with the price. This is considered to be a good technical signal.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Ocular Therapeutix stock
On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $4.75 and $4.65. There is a natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Ocular Therapeutix finds support just below today's level at $4.75. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $4.65 and $4.20.
This stock may move very much during the day (volatility) and with a very large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "very high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $0.590 between high and low, or 12.19%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 11.45%.
Ocular Therapeutix is oversold on RSI14 (18). Some stocks may drop long and hard while being oversold on RSI before turning, which increases the general risk.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (OCUL) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 2nd
For the upcoming trading day on Thursday, 2nd we expect Ocular Therapeutix to open at $5.10, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $4.44 and $5.60, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.581 (+/-11.58%) up or down from last closing price. If Ocular Therapeutix takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 23.16% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $5.08 (1.10%) than the support at $4.75 (5.48%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is Ocular Therapeutix stock A Buy?
Ocular Therapeutix holds several negative signals and we believe that it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We, therefore, hold a negative evaluation of this stock. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Sell to a Strong Sell candidate.
Current score: -6.036 Strong Sell Candidate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Ocular Therapeutix of Thursday, May 2, 2024
| Fair opening price May 2, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $5.10 ( 1.53%) | $5.02 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for OCUL
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 5.69 | 13.28 % | |
| R2 | 5.46 | 8.79 % | ||
| R1 | 5.32 | 6.02 % | ||
| Current price: | 5.02 | |||
| Support | S1 | 4.87 | -2.96 % | |
| S2 | 4.73 | -5.74 % | ||
| S3 | 4.51 | -10.23 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 5.86 | 16.73 % | |
| R2 | 5.22 | 3.98 % | ||
| R1 | 5.08 | 1.10 % | ||
| Current price | 5.02 | |||
| Support | S1 | 4.75 | -5.48% | |
| S2 | 4.65 | -7.47% | ||
| S3 | 4.20 | -16.33% |
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