Shoe Carnival Stock Forecast

Sell candidate since Jun 16, 2026 Loss -2.57%

The Shoe Carnival stock price fell by -0.562% on the last day (Thursday, 18th Jun 2026) from $16.00 to $15.91. It has now fallen 4 days in a row. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 5.09% from a day low at $15.91 to a day high of $16.72. The price has fallen in 6 of the last 10 days and is down by -7.45% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day by 64 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 71 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $1.14 million.

The stock lies in the middle of a very wide and falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -3.42% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $14.27 and $18.50 at the end of this 3-month period.

SCVL Signals & Forecast

There are few to no technical positive signals at the moment. The Shoe Carnival stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $16.66 and $16.92. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Friday, May 29, 2026, and so far it has fallen -10.11%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Shoe Carnival gained volume on the last day, but on falling prices. In technical terms, this is called divergence and may be an early warning. In some cases, increasing volume on falling prices may be considered positive, but that is mainly in typical "sell-offs".

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Shoe Carnival stock

Shoe Carnival finds support from accumulated volume at $15.77 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $0.81 between high and low, or 5.09%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 4.60%.

Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.

Trading Expectations (SCVL) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 22nd

For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 22nd we expect Shoe Carnival to open at $16.18, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $15.52 and $16.30, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.780 (+/-5.03%) up or down from last closing price. If Shoe Carnival takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 5.03% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $15.99 (0.50%) than the support at $15.77 (0.88%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.

Dividend Warning For SCVL

Dividend coming up for SCVL: Ex-dividend date (Monday 6th July, 2026) is 14 days away. The dividend is $0.170.

Is Shoe Carnival stock A Buy?

Shoe Carnival holds several negative signals and is within a very wide and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this stock.

Current score: -1.517 Sell Candidate Unchanged

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on June 22, 2026 - $16.18 ( 1.70%).

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