Smith Micro Software Stock Forecast

High volatility in Smith Micro Software stock price on Friday which ended trading at $2.08
(Updated on Apr 19, 2024)

SMSI Signals & Forecast

The Smith Micro Software stock holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the stock giving a positive forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately $2.09. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $0.698. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Thursday, April 11, 2024, and so far it has fallen -11.86%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume fell along with the price during the last trading day, which is technical positive. One should, however, note that this stock may have low liquidity in periods, which increases the general risk.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Smith Micro Software stock

On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $1.96 and $1.95. There is a natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Smith Micro Software finds support just below today's level at $1.96. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $1.95 and $1.94.

This stock may move very much during the day (volatility) and with periodic low trading volume this stock is considered to be "very high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $0.299 between high and low, or 14.44%. For the last week the stock has had daily average volatility of 21.77%.

The Smith Micro Software stock is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this may pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some stocks may go long and hard while being overbought. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely and it is of great importance that the stock manages to break the trend before that occurs.

Our recommended stop-loss: $1.97 (-5.42%) (This stock has very high daily movements and this gives very high risk. The RSI14 is 79 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 6 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (SMSI) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 22nd

For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 22nd we expect Smith Micro Software to open at $2.17, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $1.81 and $2.35, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.271 (+/-13.04%) up or down from last closing price. If Smith Micro Software takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 26.07% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $2.15 (3.37%) than the support at $1.96 (5.77%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.

Is Smith Micro Software stock A Buy?

Smith Micro Software holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.

Current score: 0.861 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded

Predicted Opening Price for Smith Micro Software of Monday, April 22, 2024

The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.