Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X ETF Forecast
Weaker technical forecast for Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X as ETF downgraded to Sell Candidate.
(Updated on Apr 24, 2024)
The Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X ETF price fell by -3.81% on the last day (Wednesday, 24th Apr 2024) from $41.18 to $39.61. It has now fallen 3 days in a row. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 9.33% from a day low at $37.30 to a day high of $40.78. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a 15.48% gain for the last 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 8 million shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 27 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $1.05 billion.
The ETF lies in the middle of a very wide and falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to fall -24.35% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $15.60 and $34.36 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
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SOXS Signals & Forecast
The Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X ETF holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the ETF giving a positive forecast for the stock. On further gains, the ETF will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately $41.02. On a fall, the ETF will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $34.83. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Friday, April 19, 2024, and so far it has fallen -14.13%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the ETF should be followed more closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X ETF
On the downside, the ETF finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $35.90 and $32.20. There is a natural risk involved when a ETF is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the ETF then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X finds support just below today's level at $35.90. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $32.20 and $31.80.
This ETF may move very much during the day (volatility) and with a very large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this ETF is considered to be "very high risk". During the last day, the ETF moved $3.48 between high and low, or 9.33%. For the last week, the ETF has had daily average volatility of 8.67%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (SOXS) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 25th
For the upcoming trading day on Thursday, 25th we expect Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X Shares to open at $39.23, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $36.56 and $42.66, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$3.05 (+/-7.69%) up or down from last closing price. If Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X Shares takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 15.39% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $41.27 (4.19%) than the support at $35.90 (9.37%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X Shares ETF A Buy?
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X holds several negative signals and we believe that it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We, therefore, hold a negative evaluation of this ETF. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Sell candidate.
Current score: -1.088 Sell Candidate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X Shares of Thursday, April 25, 2024
Fair opening price April 25, 2024 | Current price |
---|---|
$39.23 ( 0.96%) | $39.61 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for SOXS
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
Level | Price | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Resistance | R3 | 42.71 | 7.83 % | |
R2 | 41.38 | 4.47 % | ||
R1 | 40.56 | 2.40 % | ||
Current price: | 39.61 | |||
Support | S1 | 37.90 | -4.32 % | |
S2 | 37.08 | -6.39 % | ||
S3 | 35.75 | -9.75 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
Level | Price | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Resistance | R3 | 46.13 | 16.46 % | |
R2 | 43.00 | 8.56 % | ||
R1 | 41.27 | 4.19 % | ||
Current price | 39.61 | |||
Support | S1 | 35.90 | -9.37% | |
S2 | 32.20 | -18.71% | ||
S3 | 31.80 | -19.72% |
SOXS Dividend Payout History
# | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Jan 18, 2024 | Mar 19, 2024 | Mar 26, 2024 | $0.0413 | 0.124% |
2 | Dec 21, 2023 | Dec 21, 2023 | Dec 21, 2023 | $0.0700 | 0.116% |
3 | Mar 23, 2023 | Sep 19, 2023 | Sep 26, 2023 | $0.159 | 0.129% |
4 | Mar 23, 2023 | Jun 21, 2023 | Jun 28, 2023 | $0.119 | 0.115% |
5 | Mar 20, 2023 | Mar 21, 2023 | Mar 28, 2023 | $0.188 | 0.0973% |
FAQ
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