Transalta Stock Forecast

Buy or Hold candidate since May 13, 2025 Gain 32.02%

The TransAlta Corporation stock price gained 1.09% on the last trading day (Thursday, 17th Jul 2025), rising from $11.95 to $12.08. It has now gained 7 days in a row. It is not often that stock manage to gain so many days in a row, and falls for a day or two should be expected. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 3.01% from a day low at $11.81 to a day high of $12.16. The price has risen in 8 of the last 10 days and is up by 13.64% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -125 thousand shares and in total, 902 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $10.90 million. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.

The stock lies in the middle of a wide and strong rising trend in the short term and a further rise within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 34.88% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $14.57 and $17.01 at the end of this 3-month period.

TAC Signals & Forecast

Mostly positive signals in the chart today. The TransAlta Corporation stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $11.51 and $10.80. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Tuesday, July 08, 2025, and so far it has risen 15.93%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The stock should be watched closely. The stock had a Golden Star Signal on Monday, May 12, 2025 in the short-term chart.

Golden Star Signal is when the short-term moving average, the long-term moving average, and price line meet in a special combination. This combination is very rare and often followed by long and strong gains for the stock in question.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for TransAlta Corporation stock

On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $11.41 and $10.98. There is a natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, TransAlta Corporation finds support just below today's level at $11.41. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $10.98 and $10.41.

This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $0.355 between high and low, or 3.01%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 3.74%.

Since the TransAlta Corporation has been rising for 7 days in a row, the risk over the next couple of days has increased. We don't expect a major reaction as the stock is in very good shape technically, and therefore hold a positive evaluation despite the very short term risk.

Our recommended stop-loss: $11.72 (-2.98%) (This stock has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. The RSI14 is 76 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 7 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (TAC) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Friday 18th

For the upcoming trading day on Friday, 18th we expect TransAlta Corporation to open at $12.02, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $11.90 and $12.26, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.362 (+/-3.04%) up or down from last closing price. If TransAlta Corporation takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 3.04% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

With no resistance above and support from accumulated volume @ $11.41, some $0.670 (5.55%) from the current price of $12.08, our system finds the risk reward attractive.

Is TransAlta Corporation stock A Buy?

TransAlta Corporation holds several positive signals and is within a strong rising trend. As the old saying says, "Let the trend be your friend.'". We therefore consider it to be a good choice at these current levels and we are expecting further gains during the next 3 months.

Current score: 5.291 Strong Buy Candidate Unchanged

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on July 18, 2025 - $12.02 ( 0.538%).

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