US Treasury 3 Month Bill ETF Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
US Treasury 3 Month Bill ETF price ended at $49.91 on Friday, after gaining 0.0200%.
(Updated on May 10, 2024)
The US Treasury 3 Month Bill ETF price gained 0.0200% on the last trading day (Friday, 10th May 2024), rising from $49.90 to $49.91. It has now gained 7 days in a row. It is not often that ETFS manage to gain so many days in a row, and falls for a day or two should be expected. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.0200% from a day low at $49.90 to a day high of $49.91. The price has risen in 7 of the last 10 days but is still down by -0.22% for this period. Volume fell on the last day by -170 thousand shares and in total, 935 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $46.66 million. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.
The ETF is moving within a narrow and horizontal trend and further movements within this trend can be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect US Treasury 3 Month Bill ETF with a 90% probability to be traded between $49.76 and $49.96 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and ETFS seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. ETFS turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.
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TBIL Signals & Forecast
There are mixed signals in the ETF today. The US Treasury 3 Month Bill ETF holds a buy signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, the long-term average holds a general sell signal. Since the longterm average is above the short-term average there is a general sell signal in the ETF giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On further gains, the ETF will meet resistance from the long-term Moving Average at $49.93. On a fall, the ETF will find some support from the short-term average at $49.88. A break-up through the long-term average will give another buy signal, while a fall below the short-term average will add another sell signal and strengthen the general signal. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Wednesday, May 01, 2024, and so far it has risen 0.161%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The ETF should be watched closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for US Treasury 3 Month Bill ETF
US Treasury 3 Month Bill finds support from accumulated volume at $49.89 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.0100 between high and low, or 0.0200%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.0241%.
Since the US Treasury 3 Month Bill has been rising for 7 days in a row, the risk over the next couple of days has increased.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (TBIL) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 13th
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 13th we expect US Treasury 3 Month Bill ETF to open at $49.91, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $49.88 and $49.94, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.0257 (+/-0.05%) up or down from last closing price. If US Treasury 3 Month Bill ETF takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 0.10% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $49.89 (0.04%) than the resistance at $49.93 (0.04%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..
Is US Treasury 3 Month Bill ETF ETF A Buy?
US Treasury 3 Month Bill holds several negative signals and we believe that it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We, therefore, hold a negative evaluation of this ETF.
Current score: -1.377 Sell Candidate Unchanged
Predicted Opening Price for US Treasury 3 Month Bill ETF of Monday, May 13, 2024
Fair opening price May 13, 2024 | Current price |
---|---|
$49.91 ( 0.0067%) | $49.91 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for TBIL
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
Level | Price | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Resistance | R3 | 49.92 | 0.0134 % | |
R2 | 49.91 | 0.0057 % | ||
R1 | 49.91 | 0.0010 % | ||
Current price: | 49.91 | |||
Support | S1 | 49.90 | -0.0143 % | |
S2 | 49.90 | -0.0191 % | ||
S3 | 49.90 | -0.0267 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
Level | Price | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Resistance | R3 | 50.02 | 0.220 % | |
R2 | 49.99 | 0.160 % | ||
R1 | 49.93 | 0.0401 % | ||
Current price | 49.91 | |||
Support | S1 | 49.89 | -0.0401% | |
S2 | 49.86 | -0.100% | ||
S3 | 49.83 | -0.160% |
TBIL Dividend Payout History
# | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Apr 30, 2024 | May 01, 2024 | May 03, 2024 | $0.218 | 0.438% |
2 | Mar 28, 2024 | Apr 01, 2024 | Apr 03, 2024 | $0.219 | 0.439% |
3 | Feb 29, 2024 | Mar 01, 2024 | Mar 05, 2024 | $0.219 | 0.440% |
4 | Jan 31, 2024 | Feb 01, 2024 | Feb 05, 2024 | $0.220 | 0.440% |
5 | Dec 26, 2023 | Dec 27, 2023 | Dec 29, 2023 | $0.219 | 0.439% |
FAQ
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