Tesoro Fund Forecast

Buy or Hold candidate since Jun 01, 2017

No changes to the price of Tesoro Corporation fund on the last trading day (Monday, 14th Aug 2017). During the last trading day the fund fluctuated 1.79% from a day low at $98.01 to a day high of $99.76. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a 0% change for the last 2 weeks.

The fund lies in the lower part of a strong rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good buying opportunity. If the lower trend floor at $99.20 is broken, it will firstly indicate a slower rate of rising, but may also be an early warning for a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the fund is expected to rise 21.96% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $120.98 and $131.01 at the end of this 3-month period.

TSO Signals & Forecast

The Tesoro Corporation fund holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the fund. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $99.53 and $97.12. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Friday, August 11, 2017, and so far it has fallen 0%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell during the last trading day while price remained unchanged. This may be an early warning, but it may also not. We still recommend that you pay attention over the next couple of days.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Tesoro Corporation fund

On the downside, the fund finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $89.46 and $83.25. There is a natural risk involved when a fund is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the fund then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Tesoro Corporation finds support just below today's level at $89.46. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $83.25 and $83.24.

In general the fund tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this fund. During the last day, the fund moved $1.75 between high and low, or 1.79%. For the last week the fund has had daily average volatility of 1.79%.

The Tesoro Corporation fund is extremely overbought on RSI14 (95). This increases the short-term risk substantially.

Our recommended stop-loss: $96.33 (-3.22%) (This fund has very low daily movements and this gives very low risk. The RSI14 is 95 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 1 day ago.)

Trading Expectations (TSO) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Tuesday 15th

For the upcoming trading day on Tuesday, 15th we expect Tesoro Corporation to open at $99.10, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $98.71 and $100.35, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$1.63 (+/-1.65%) up or down from last closing price. If Tesoro Corporation takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 1.65% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

With no resistance above and support from accumulated volume @ $89.46, some $10.07 (10.12%) from the current price of $99.53, our system finds the risk reward attractive.

Is Tesoro Corporation fund A Buy?

Tesoro Corporation holds several negative signals and this should be a sell candidate, but due to the general chance for a turnaround situation it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this fund since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold candidate.

Current score: 0.930 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on August 15, 2017 - $99.10 ( 0.432%).

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