Valero Energy Stock Forecast

Buy or Hold candidate since Jun 24, 2026 Gain 29.85%

The Valero Energy stock price gained 0.476% on the last trading day (Tuesday, 21st Jul 2026), rising from $313.31 to $314.80. It has now gained 4 days in a row. It will be exciting to see whether it manages to continue gaining or take a minor break for the next few days. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 2.59% from a day low at $310.01 to a day high of $318.05. The price has risen in 7 of the last 10 days and is up by 18.25% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -469 thousand shares and in total, 2 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $635.98 million. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.

The stock has broken the wide and strong rising the short-term trend up and an even stronger rate of rising is indicated. For any reaction back there will now be support on the roof on the current trend broken at $298.48, a level that may pose a second chance to hit a runner. According to fan-theory $342.74 will be the next possible trend-top level and thereby pose a resistance level that may not be broken at the first attempt.

VLO Signals & Forecast

The Valero Energy stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $303.99 and $267.32. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Thursday, June 18, 2026, and so far it has risen 33.22%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The stock should be watched closely.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Valero Energy stock

On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $247.16 and $236.69. There is a natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Valero Energy finds support just below today's level at $247.16. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $236.69 and $236.30.

This stock may move much during the day (volatility) and with a large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $8.04 between high and low, or 2.59%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 3.33%.

The Valero Energy stock is extremely overbought on RSI14 (81). Normally this may pose a good selling opportunity but since the stock has broken the trend up, the chance for a major correction due to high RSI is very small as the stock will find support at the trend broken.

Our recommended stop-loss: $301.53 (-4.22%) (This stock has high daily movements and this gives high risk. The RSI14 is 81 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 21 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (VLO) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Wednesday 22nd

For the upcoming trading day on Wednesday, 22nd we expect Valero Energy Corporation to open at $314.29, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $309.59 and $320.01, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$10.42 (+/-3.36%) up or down from last closing price. If Valero Energy Corporation takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 3.36% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

With no resistance above and support from accumulated volume @ $247.16, some $67.64 (21.49%) from the current price of $314.80, our system finds the risk reward attractive.

Dividend Warning For VLO

Dividend coming up for VLO: Ex-dividend date (Friday 31st July, 2026) is 9 days away. The dividend is $1.20.

Is Valero Energy Corporation stock A Buy?

Valero Energy holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development.

Current score: 0.000 Hold/Accumulate Unchanged

Zero in score indicates that our system is expecting high volatility and risk for the following trading day. Given the latest developments, we cannot determine the next direction as it may go both ways.

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on July 22, 2026 - $314.29 ( 0.163%).

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