Apple Inc. Forecast and Stock Analysis
Technical AAPL stock analysis for February 15, 2019.
Apple Inc. fell by -0.22% in the last day from $170.80 to $170.42 The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a 2.34% gain for the last 2 weeks. Volume has increased in the last day by 2.50 million shares, but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly for the next couple of days. In total, 24.65 million shares bought and sold for approximately $4 201.46 million.
Close price at the end of the last trading day (Friday, 15th Feb 2019) of the AAPL stock was $170.42. This is 0.22% less than the trading day before Thursday, 14th Feb 2019.
During day the stock fluctuated 1.15% from a day low at $169.75 to a day high of $171.70.
30 day high of the AAPL stock price was $175.57 and low was $151.70.
90 day high was $190.70 and low was $142.00.
52 week high for the Apple Inc. - $233.47 and low - $142.00.
Apple Inc. lies the upper part of a very wide and falling trend in the short term, and this will normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break up at the top trend line at $173.15 will firstly indicate a slower falling rate, but may be the first sign of a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -7.48% during the next 3 months and, with 90% probability hold a price between $125.08 and $160.20 at the end of this period.
Apple Inc. holds a sales signal from the short-term moving average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the short-term moving average at approximately $170.44. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $159.63. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sales signal. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Monday February 11, 2019, which indicates further gains until a new top pivot has been found. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The stock holds a RSI14 at 74 and is currently being overbought on RSI. This does not have to be a sales signal as many stocks may go both long and hard while being overbought on the RSI. It is therefore important to evaluate the history of the share as it may tell you something about the RSI-sensitiveness.
Support & Resistance
On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $156.83 and $150.73.
There is natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Apple Inc. finds support just below today's level at $156.83. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $150.73 and $142.19.
This stock may move much during a day (volatility) and with a large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $1.95 between high and low, or 1.15%. For the last week, the stock has had a daily average volatility of 1.14%.
The stock is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this will pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some stocks may go long and hard while being overbought. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely and it is of great importance that the stock manages to break the trend before that occurs.
Our recommended stoploss: $162.06 (-4.90%) (This stock has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. The RSI14 is 74 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a buy signal from pivot bottom found 4 days ago.)
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Apple Inc. holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy-recommendation. At the current level we recommend to hold or accumulate in this position whilst awaiting for further development.