Arch Capital Group Ltd. Forecast and Stock Analysis
Technical ACGL stock analysis for February 15, 2019.
Arch Capital Group Ltd. gained 1.22% in the last trading day, rising from $31.12 to $31.50 The price has risen in 7 of the last 10 days and is up by 5.92% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased in the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 0.12 million more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 1.76 million shares bought and sold for approximately $55.48 million.
Close price at the end of the last trading day (Friday, 15th Feb 2019) of the ACGL stock was $31.50. This is 1.22% more than the trading day before Thursday, 14th Feb 2019.
During day the stock fluctuated 1.59% from a day low at $31.36 to a day high of $31.86.
30 day high of the ACGL stock price was $32.30 and low was $27.48.
90 day high was $32.30 and low was $24.79.
52 week high for the Arch Capital Group Ltd. - $90.27 and low - $24.79.
Arch Capital Group Ltd. lies in the upper part of a wide and strong rising trend in the short term, and this will normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break-up at the top trend line at $32.06 will firstly indicate a stronger raising rate. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 10.38% during the next 3 months and, with 90% probability hold a price between $29.37 and $35.39 at the end of this period.
Only positive signals in the chart today. Arch Capital Group Ltd. holds buy signals from both short- and long-term moving averages. In addition, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down there will be some support from the lines at $30.92 and $28.51. A break down below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Thursday February 14, 2019, which indicates further gains until a new top pivot has been found. Volume is rising along with the price. This is considered to be a good technical signal.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The stock holds a RSI14 at 80 and is currently being overbought on RSI. This does not have to be a sales signal as many stocks may go both long and hard while being overbought on the RSI. It is therefore important to evaluate the history of the share as it may tell you something about the RSI-sensitiveness.
Support & Resistance
On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $28.62 and $26.41.
There is natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Arch Capital Group Ltd. finds support just below today's level at $28.62. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $26.41 and $26.39.
This stock is usually traded at good volume, and with minor daily changes the risk is considered to be low. During the last day, the stock moved $0.50 (1.59%) between high and low. For the last week, the stock has had a daily average volatility of 2.42%.
The stock is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this will pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some stocks may go long and hard while being overbought. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely and it is of great importance that the stock manages to break the trend before that occurs.
Our recommended stoploss: $29.81 (-5.36%) (This stock has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. The RSI14 is 80 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a buy signal from pivot bottom found 1 days ago.)
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Evaluation: Strong Buy Candidate
Arch Capital Group Ltd. holds several positive signals and is within a strong rising trend. As the old saying says, "Let the trend be your friend.'". We therefore consider it to be a good choice at these current levels and we are expecting further gains during the next 3 months. We have upgraded our recommendation for this stock since last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Strong Buy Candidate.