Microsoft Corporation Forecast and Stock Analysis
Technical MSFT stock analysis for March 19, 2019.
Microsoft Corporation gained 0.07% in the last trading day, rising from $117.57 to $117.65 , and has now gained 9 days in a row. It is not often that stocks manage to gain so many days in a row, and falls for a day or two should be expected. The price has risen in 9 of the last 10 days and is up by 5.33% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased in the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 4.21 million more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 35.30 million shares bought and sold for approximately $4 153.50 million.
Close price at the end of the last trading day (Tuesday, 19th Mar 2019) of the MSFT stock was $117.65. This is 0.07% more than the trading day before Monday, 18th Mar 2019.
During day the stock fluctuated 1.24% from a day low at $116.99 to a day high of $118.44.
30 day high of the MSFT stock price was $118.44 and low was $106.29.
90 day high was $118.44 and low was $93.96.
52 week high for the Microsoft Corporation - $118.44 and low - $87.08.
Microsoft Corporation lies in the upper part of a strong rising trend in the short term, and this will normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break-up at the top trend line at $118.41 will firstly indicate a stronger raising rate. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 15.38% during the next 3 months and, with 90% probability hold a price between $126.21 and $136.63 at the end of this period.
Only positive signals in the chart today. Microsoft Corporation holds buy signals from both short- and long-term moving averages. In addition, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down there will be some support from the lines at $115.24 and $109.72. A break down below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Thursday March 07, 2019, which indicates further gains until a new top pivot has been found. Volume is rising along with the price. This is considered to be a good technical signal.
* Golden Star Signal* is when the short-term moving average, the long-term moving average, and price line meet in a special combination. This combination is very rare and often followed by long and strong gains for the stock in question.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The stock holds a RSI14 at 77 and is currently being overbought on RSI. This does not have to be a sales signal as many stocks may go both long and hard while being overbought on the RSI. It is therefore important to evaluate the history of the share as it may tell you something about the RSI-sensitiveness.
Support & Resistance
On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $102.80 and $101.51.
There is natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Microsoft Corporation finds support just below today's level at $102.80. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $101.51 and $98.23.
This stock is usually traded at good volume, and with minor daily changes the risk is considered to be low. During the last day, the stock moved $1.45 (1.24%) between high and low. For the last week, the stock has had a daily average volatility of 1.35%.
The stock is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this will pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some stocks may go long and hard while being overbought and the RSI is still moving upwards. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trendposition increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely, and it is of great importance that the stock manages to break the trend before that occurs. Since the Microsoft Corporation has been rising for 9 days in a row, the risk for the next couple of days has increased. We don't expect a major reaction as the stock is in very good shape technically, and therefore hold a positive evaluation despite the very short term risk.
Our recommended stoploss: $112.77 (-4.15%) (This stock has low daily movements and this gives low risk. The RSI14 is 77 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a buy signal from pivot bottom found 8 days ago.)
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Evaluation: Strong Buy Candidate
Microsoft Corporation holds several positive signals and is within a strong rising trend. As the old saying says, "Let the trend be your friend.'". We therefore consider it to be a good choice at these current levels and we are expecting further gains during the next 3 months.