Novavax Stock Forecast

Sell candidate since Jun 18, 2026

The Novavax stock price fell by -3.89% on the last day (Thursday, 18th Jun 2026) from $9.50 to $9.13. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 10.02% from a day low at $9.08 to a day high of $9.99. The price has fallen in 6 of the last 10 days and is down by -10.4% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day by 4 million shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 8 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $68.54 million.

The stock lies in the lower part of a very wide and strong rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good buying opportunity. If the lower trend floor at $8.68 is broken, it will firstly indicate a slower rate of rising, but may also be an early warning for a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 11.88% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $9.71 and $12.75 at the end of this 3-month period.

NVAX Signals & Forecast

There are mixed signals in the stock today. The Novavax stock holds a buy signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, the long-term average holds a general sell signal. Since the longterm average is above the short-term average there is a general sell signal in the stock giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the long-term Moving Average at $9.35. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the short-term average at $9.07. A break-up through the long-term average will give another buy signal, while a fall below the short-term average will add another sell signal and strengthen the general signal. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Wednesday, June 10, 2026, and so far it has risen 6.66%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Novavax stock

On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $8.67 and $8.62. There is a natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Novavax finds support just below today's level at $8.67. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $8.62 and $8.45.

This stock may move much during the day (volatility) and with a large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $0.91 between high and low, or 10.02%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 6.60%.

Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.

Trading Expectations (NVAX) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 22nd

For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 22nd we expect Novavax Inc to open at $9.40, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $8.80 and $9.46, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.651 (+/-7.39%) up or down from last closing price. If Novavax Inc takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 7.39% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $9.23 (1.10%) than the support at $8.67 (5.04%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.

Is Novavax Inc stock A Buy?

Novavax holds several negative signals and we believe that it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We, therefore, hold a negative evaluation of this stock. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Sell candidate.

Current score: -3.410 Sell Candidate Downgraded

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on June 22, 2026 - $9.40 ( 2.96%).

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