Alibaba Stock Forecast

Hold candidate since Jun 02, 2026 Loss -2.73%

The Alibaba stock price fell by -2.73% on the last day (Wednesday, 3rd Jun 2026) from $130.87 to $127.30. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 1.62% from a day low at $126.83 to a day high of $128.89. The price has fallen in 8 of the last 10 days and is down by -6.14% for this period. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -5 million shares and in total, 9 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $1.09 billion.

The stock lies in the middle of a wide and weak rising trend in the short term and a further rise within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 2.04% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $124.08 and $149.45 at the end of this 3-month period.

BABA Signals & Forecast

A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Friday, May 29, 2026, and so far it has risen 2.46%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Alibaba stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $127.31 and $133.85. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Alibaba stock

Alibaba finds support from accumulated volume at $126.08 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $2.06 between high and low, or 1.62%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 1.99%.

Our recommended stop-loss: $120.12 (-5.64%) (This stock has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 3 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (BABA) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 4th

For the upcoming trading day on Thursday, 4th we expect Alibaba Group Holding Limited to open at $127.67, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $125.00 and $129.60, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$4.60 (+/-3.68%) up or down from last closing price. If Alibaba Group Holding Limited takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 3.68% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $126.08 (0.96%) than the resistance at $133.27 (4.69%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..

Dividend Warning For BABA

Dividend coming up for BABA: Ex-dividend date (Thursday 11th June, 2026) is 6 days away. The dividend is $1.05.

Is Alibaba Group Holding Limited stock A Buy?

Alibaba holds several negative signals and this should be a sell candidate, but due to the general chance for a turnaround situation it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development.

Current score: -0.278 Hold/Accumulate Unchanged

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on June 4, 2026 - $127.67 ( 0.293%).

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