Microsoft Stock Forecast

Sell candidate since Jun 29, 2026 Gain 4.26%

The Microsoft stock price increased 3.02% on the last trading day (Wednesday, 1st Jul 2026), climbing from $373.02 to $384.28. Throughout the last trading session, the stock experienced fluctuations of 3.72%, ranging from a day low of $374.89 to a day high of $388.83. The price has shown volatility during this period, resulting in a -2.42% decline over the past 2 weeks. Volume increased on the last day together with the price, which is a favorable technical indicator, and a total of 12 thousand more shares were traded compared to the previous day. In total, 44 million shares changed hands for approximately $16.84 billion.

The stock lies in the middle of a very wide and falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -3.11% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $340.93 and $441.32 at the end of this 3-month period.

MSFT Signals & Forecast

A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Thursday, June 25, 2026, and so far it has risen 8.91%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Volume is rising along with the price. This is considered to be a good technical signal. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Microsoft stock holds a buy signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, the long-term average holds a general sell signal. Since the longterm average is above the short-term average there is a general sell signal in the stock giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the long-term Moving Average at $403.65. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the short-term average at $370.15. A break-up through the long-term average will give another buy signal, while a fall below the short-term average will add another sell signal and strengthen the general signal. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Microsoft stock

Microsoft finds support from accumulated volume at $379.40 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $13.94 between high and low, or 3.72%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 3.90%.

Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.

Trading Expectations (MSFT) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 2nd

For the upcoming trading day on Thursday, 2nd we expect Microsoft Corporation to open at $382.67, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $377.80 and $390.76, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$12.96 (+/-3.43%) up or down from last closing price. If Microsoft Corporation takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 3.43% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $379.40 (1.27%) than the resistance at $407.78 (6.12%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..

Dividend Warning For MSFT

Dividend coming up for MSFT: Ex-dividend date (Thursday 20th August, 2026) is 49 days away. The dividend is $0.91.

Is Microsoft Corporation stock A Buy?

Microsoft holds several negative signals and we believe that it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We, therefore, hold a negative evaluation of this stock.

Current score: -2.128 Sell Candidate Unchanged

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on July 2, 2026 - $382.67 ( 0.420%).

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